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NBA Three-Point Shooting: Separate Volume from AccuracyEvaluate three-point offense through attempt rate, shot quality and lineup context rather than letting one hot shooting night define a team.College Football Sacks: Count Dropbacks Before Ranking PressureRaw sack totals hide opportunity. Use dropbacks, game state and pressure type to evaluate college football pass rush and protection.MLB Platoon Splits: Avoid the Full-Season ShortcutLearn how batter handedness, pitcher pitch mix and projected pinch-hit paths make platoon splits more useful than one full-season average.NFL Red-Zone Efficiency: Count Trips Before TouchdownsLearn how red-zone opportunities, play volume and finishing rate work together—and why touchdown percentage alone can mislead.College Football Weather: Measure the Conditions That Change the GameA practical way to evaluate wind, rain, temperature and field conditions without turning every forecast into an automatic betting conclusion.All Betting Reference Articles →Past Recaps & Matchup Analysis →
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Premier Picks® for Sunday, September 27, 2026

4 STAR★★★★
NFL

Jacksonville -2.5 over New England (NFL)

Playable range: -1 to -4.5

Why we like this pick

I like Jacksonville’s opportunity to turn New England’s early ball-security problems into an advantage at home. Drake Maye entered this game with four interceptions through two weeks, while the Jaguars had already produced three takeaways. That creates a path to shorter fields if Jacksonville’s front can apply pressure. On offense, Trevor Lawrence has capable options in Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, but protection against New England’s strong defensive front is essential. The Patriots are disciplined enough to keep this competitive; I’m backing Jacksonville to make the more decisive plays and cover a manageable home spread.

3 STAR★★★
NFL

Washington +8 over Seattle (NFL)

Playable range: +10 to +6

Why we like this pick

I like Washington getting more than a touchdown at home. Losing Jayden Daniels matters, but Marcus Mariota is an experienced replacement who played well in relief the previous week and is willing to challenge defenses downfield. Seattle is missing both starting safeties, Julian Love and Ty Okada, which creates an opportunity for Washington to find enough scoring plays to stay close. The Seahawks had converted only three of seven red-zone trips into touchdowns through two games. Washington’s own injuries and Seattle’s strong defense are concerns, but this number gives the Commanders room to cover without winning outright.

3 STAR★★★
NFL

Detroit -6.5 over N.Y. Jets (NFL)

Playable range: -5 to -8.5

Why we like this pick

I’m backing Detroit’s offensive balance at Ford Field, particularly with Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany trending toward a return to the line. Their presence would help the Lions establish the run and avoid obvious passing situations against a Jets defense that entered the game ranked first overall. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s strong start gives Jared Goff a dependable target to keep drives moving. The concern is Detroit’s defense, which had allowed too many explosive plays through two weeks. This pick depends on cleaner defensive execution and Detroit sustaining drives well enough to build a clear winning margin.

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