Betting NFL
Updated Division Futures
The 2018 NFL
regular season heads into the halfway point and while some things have gone
according to plan, some other things have been turned completely upside down
when it comes to the posted futures for each of the eight division races.
The Washington
Redskins are leading the NFC East at 4-2, while the defending Super Bowl
Champion Philadelphia Eagles have already lost more games than they did in the
2017 title run. The Chicago Bears have gotten used to being last in the NFC
North, but at 3-3 after their first six games, they are just a game and half
out of first place.
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Some of the
races have stayed in line with the NFL futures odds that were posted on the
board right before the start of the preseason games. The Los Angeles Rams are
running away with the NFC West at 7-0 as clear favorites to repeat as division
champs. The New England Patriots were prohibitive favorites to win their 10th-straight
AFC East title. At 5-2, their lead over Miami is just one game, but they remain
heavy favorites make good on that bet.
When it comes
to betting on the recently updated NFL futures to win each of the eight
division races, there is still some solid value on the board in many of these contests.
Starting in the
NFC East, the Eagles were -150 favorites to win the division title in the
preseason and their odds to win it now at 3-4 are set at +175 as second
favorites. The Redskins are now the frontrunners as +150 favorites. Dallas is
in the mix at +225 followed by the New York Giants at +3300.
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Any one of
these four teams can win this division, even the 1-6 Giants given the total
lack of consistency each team has displayed from week-to-week. The Eagles have
continually shot themselves in the foot in what have easily could have been a
6-1 start. They still have two games to play against Washington to close the
gap as a top value pick.
The 5-1 New
Orleans Saints have gone from +150 favorites to win the NFC South before the
season to heavy -260 favorites at this point of the season. Carolina offers
some value as a +300 favorite with its 4-2 start, but I would concede this race
to New Orleans.
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Skipping over
the NFC West which has already been conceded to the Rams, Minnesota was a +115
favorite to win the NFC North in the preseason and at 4-2-1, the Vikings are
+100 favorites on the updated board. This division is far from being conceded
with Minnesota using some smoke and mirrors to post its early lead. Green Bay
is second at +300 with a 3-2-1 mark followed by Chicago at +350. The Detroit
Lions have strung together a few wins to even their mark at 3-3 and their odds
to win the North are +700. These is something about the Bears that makes them
the top-valued pick on the list.
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Conceding the
AFC East to New England is probably a smart move. Pittsburgh was a heavy -250
favorite to once again with the AFC North before the season and at 3-2-1
through six games, those odds have shifted to +140 with Baltimore (+175) and
Cincinnati (+275) each going 4-3 in their first seven games. The Steelers have
already beaten each of those teams once to give them the early edge to winning
the North.
The AFC South
was the most wide-open race heading into the season with Jacksonville set as a
+175 favorite followed by Houston at +200 odds and Tennessee at +350. The
updated futures now gives the clear edge to the Texans at -125 betting odds.
They are 4-3 following an 0-3 start with the Jaguars (+225) and Titans (+550) just
one game back at 3-4. Jacksonville appears to be headed in the wrong direction
and Tennessee has lost its last three games after a strong start. Advantage
Houston.
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The Kansas City
Chiefs have won the AFC West the previous two years, but they came into this
season as +250 second-favorites behind the Los Angeles Chargers as +135 favorites.
The Chiefs’ 6-1 start has radically shifted those odds as prohibitive -450
favorites ahead of the 5-2 Chargers at +300 betting odds. As crazy as it may
sound, betting Los Angeles to win the West is a tremendous value. It is riding
a four-game winning streak and picking up steam each and every week. The one
drawback is a Week 1 loss to the Chiefs at home. However, things could still
come down to that second meeting in Kansas City on Dec. 13.