Getting
Ready for the NFL Playoffs
With the
calendar flipping to January, it’s almost playoff time in the NFL. It’s a great
time for bettors as they will have numerous options from which to choose. Who
do you think will win the Super
Bowl?
The
question for most bettors is how will they take advantage of the playoff season
to close out a solid NFL betting season. There are a number of things bettors
should consider in getting ready for the NFL playoffs.
Watch NFL
Playoffs Wild Cards
In 2020,
the NFL added a playoff team in each conference. That means there are now three
wild card teams in each conference. That’s important because wild card teams
tend to win a lot of playoff games.
Between
2017 and 2020, at least one wild card team won a first-round playoff game.
Since 2000, wild card teams have done extremely well in the playoffs. Overall,
they are 51-35 straight up, winning nearly 60 percent of the time.
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Home
Field Advantage Matters
There is
always a debate over whether or not playing on a home field in the NFL matters.
At playoff time, it matters.
Since the
2000 postseason, home teams are 134-78 straight up in NFL playoff games. The
home team in the postseason wins roughly 63 percent of the time.
Home field
is also a huge advantage in conference championship games. Home teams are 27-15
since 2000 in such games. That’s something football
bettors should keep in mind.
Value on
Underdogs
Come
playoff time, there is plenty of value on playoff underdogs. Like any sport’s
postseason, there are going to be upsets. For NFL
Playoffs bettors, it’s just a matter of finding the
right ones. One big win on a moneyline underdog can make your whole postseason.
If you go
back to 2007, at least one underdog has won a wild card round game outright in
11 of the past 13 seasons. That’s why there is a lot of value on underdogs in
the NFL playoffs. Bettors just have to find the right one (or ones) to bet on.
The No. 1
Seed
Getting the
No. 1 seed in the AFC or NFC matters, and smart
bettors know that! It really matters now because of
the change in NFL playoff format. Only one team gets a bye in the first round
of the playoffs. That team, of course, is the No. 1 seed.
From 2013
to 2020, six of the eight teams that earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC reached
the Super Bowl. In the NFC, it was five of eight No. 1 seeds that reached the
Super Bowl.
Having that
top seed matters. The week off helps as players can recover from any minor
injuries. The teams also get an extra week of preparation for their next
opponent.
The other
big thing that goes along with the top seed is home field advantage. Remember,
home teams win over 60 percent of playoff games.
Don’t Forget
Playoff Totals
Don’t
forget to supplement your NFL playoff betting with game totals. It’s easy to
find value in playoff games, especially those played in a domed stadium or
those in cold weather climates.
Keep in
mind that more NFL games end up with combined scores of 40 and 41 than any
other numbers and teams tend to be more conservative in playoff situations.
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