Super Bowl LIV Predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs have had recent success against the
San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in
their last four games against them and they hope this trend continues when the
teams collide in Super Bowl LIV.
What: Super Bowl LIV
When: Sunday, February 2 at 6:30 PM ET on Fox
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Betting Odds: Chiefs -1, O/U 54
The Chiefs are slight 1-point favorites at most of the online sports betting sites monitored by SBR
Odds.
The 49ers were underdogs in five games this season and went
4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in those contests.
SportsOddsHistory.com reported that a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl LIV matchup was
at +6850 before the start of the season at 5Dimes.
Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (35) and Jimmy Garoppolo (28)
will have the fewest career starts entering a Super Bowl matchup (63 including
regular season and playoffs games).
Chiefs Got Hot in the End
The Chiefs finished the regular season with six straight
wins straight up and against the spread. They took advantage of a 2-3 finish by
the Patriots to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a bye week on Wild Card
Weekend.
Kansas City came from behind in the Divisional Round against
the Texans, erasing a 24-0 deficit to win 51-31. Last Sunday they trailed the
Titans 10-0 in the first quarter before coming from behind to win 35-24 in the
AFC Championship Game.
Patrick Mahomes carried the Chiefs in their
two playoff games:
721 total yards
Nine total touchdowns
Zero turnovers
Two comeback wins
One trip to the Super Bowl
He completed 23 of 35 passes for 294 yards and three
touchdowns against the Titans. He also ran for 53 yards and one touchdown on
eight carries in the 35-24 win. The Chiefs 8-0 straight up and against the
spread over their last eight games (including the playoffs).
49ers Crush Packers
The 49ers were too much to handle for the Packers. They
secured home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs after a 13-3 finish in the
regular season and they jumped out to a massive 27-0 lead at halftime in the
NFC Championship Game against the Packers. They would never look back in their
37-20 win.
Not all was good news for the 49ers as running back Tevin
Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the first half and did not return.
Coleman was not able to practice on Thursday but he could
run on the side. He played a big part in San Francisco’s outstanding
three-headed running game. He ran for 544 yards and six touchdowns on 137
carries in 14 games this season and averaged 4.0 yards per carry. The 26-year-old
also caught 21 passes for 180 yards and one touchdown.
San Francisco could rely on Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida
to carry the load if Coleman is unable to play against Kansas City. The Niners
had five straight losing seasons and they were 4-12 straight up in 2018.
Reaching the Super Bowl the following year is remarkable.
Garoppolo Respects Mahomes
Jimmy Garoppolo met with the media recently and was asked
about the last time he faced the Chiefs back in Week 3 of the 2018 season.
Garoppolo tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of that game, ending his season.
That was also the first and only time he has faced Patrick Mahomes, who made a
great first impression.
Garoppolo officially met Mahomes after the game when the
Chiefs quarterback went into the 49ers’ locker room to offer support and well-wishes to him.
“I didn’t even know Pat at the time,” Garoppolo said.
“For him to come out of his way after the game and wish me luck and
everything, just a real class act. The guy’s awesome on the field, off the
field, he does it all.”
Quarterback Props Worth Monitoring
Jimmy Garoppolo is given over/under totals of 239.5 yards
against the Chiefs, 19.5 completions and 1.5 touchdown passes on the Super Bowl
player props at sportsbooks monitored by SBR.
Mahomes is given over/under totals of 305.5 passing yards,
24.5 completions and 2.5 touchdown passes at most shops. The 49ers will try to
run the ball often to keep Mahomes off the field. Mahomes having under 305.5
passing yards might be worth a look at +110.
Garoppolo is at -200 to throw the game’s first pick with
Mahomes at +170 on those NFL odds. There's no value on Jimmy G at that price
and Mahomes has the most pass attempts (142) without an interception to begin a
playoff career since 1991 when play-by-play data began being tracked. I will
stay away from this particular prop.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under
305.5 passing yards (+110) at SportsBetting
