Two NFL teams can finish with the same rushing average while asking their offenses to do very different things. One may create steady gains on designed runs. Another may rely on quarterback escapes, then lose a few yards while ending the game. The official average is correct in both cases; the interpretation needs more work.
Keep the official total intact
Rushing yards per attempt divides rushing yards by rushing attempts. NFL rushing totals include quarterback scrambles and ordinary kneel-downs, while plays scored as sacks belong in the passing-and-sacks accounting rather than being treated as unsuccessful designed runs.
Do not quietly replace a published total with a filtered figure. Retain the official line and show any analytical adjustment separately. That makes the comparison reproducible and prevents a favorable filter from being mistaken for a standard statistic.
Three buckets can reveal the hidden mix
Consider a hypothetical team with 24 designed runs for 96 yards, three scrambles for 36 and three kneel-downs for minus three. Its total is 129 yards on 30 attempts, or 4.3 per carry.
Remove only the kneels for an explicitly labeled review, and the figure becomes 132 yards on 27 attempts, about 4.89. Yet its designed-run average remains 4.0. Each calculation answers a different question. None should be presented as the one “real” average without explaining the purpose.
Scrambles are offense, but not evidence of the same blocking result
A scramble may punish man coverage, exploit an open lane or rescue a broken passing play. Those yards count. They do not automatically show that an offense consistently moved the front on its planned handoffs.
Conversely, removing scrambles entirely can hide an important part of a mobile quarterback’s contribution. Keep that production visible in its own category and ask whether the upcoming opponent’s coverage and rush structure presents a similar opportunity.
Short yardage needs its own context
A one-yard carry on third-and-one can achieve the full objective. The same gain on first-and-ten usually leaves more work. A run game that repeatedly faces goal-line or short-yardage situations should not be graded only against a team operating mostly in open field.
Record down, distance and field position alongside the play type. Then examine explosive gains and routine gains separately. One long run can move an average sharply without describing the other attempts.
A useful comparison log
- Official rushing yards, attempts and average.
- Designed runs, scrambles and kneel-downs, each with its own count.
- Short-yardage situations and the objective of those attempts.
- Explosive gains and whether the remaining runs stayed productive.
ISR analysis: Filtering should explain a matchup, not improve a number until it supports a preferred conclusion. State the rule, apply it consistently to both teams and preserve the official totals beside the analytical view. This is a review method, not a betting recommendation.
Scoring reference: NFL Guide for Statisticians, rushing and passing/sacks sections. The numerical example and review framework are original ISR analysis.
