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Finding Value in Betting the MLB Playoffs

There is value in betting the MLB playoffs.

Key Points

Ė One factor more than any other influences MLB playoff outcomes.

Ė Do your homework if you want to have success betting the MLB playoffs.

Betting the MLB Playoffs

Betting the MLB playoffs presents a ton of opportunity to the baseball bettor. It all starts with an understanding of how the postseason works in MLB. There has been some change in the format.

There are now three wild cards in each league. That means six teams in both the National League and American League will make the postseason.

The previous one-and-done wild card format has been replaced with a best-of-three wild card series. The top two seeds in the MLB Playoffs in each league receive a bye while seeds 3 through 6 play in the wild card playoffs.

The division series will remain as a best-of-five games. The higher seed, of course, has home field advantage. The division series follows the 2-2-1 format where Games 1, 2, and 5 are at the higher seedís home stadium.

The league championship and World Series remain as best-of-sevens and follow the 2-3-2 home and away format.

Editorís Choice > How to Bet CFB Second Half

Pitching Matters

One of the best indicators of how successful a team will be in the MLB postseason is the pitching staff. That includes both starters and relievers.

When it gets to playoff time, teams will shorten their starting rotation. They will go from five starters to four and, sometimes, they will even drop to just a three-man rotation.

In the course of a seven-game series, itís possible that a team faces an opposing ace as many as three times. That can mean the difference between a championship and a long offseason.

Starters that can go deeper into playoff games also help the bullpen. The fewer pitches a bullpen has to throw; the better. Then, relievers can be ready to go for the next game. Knowing advanced info about MLB pitching use can help you win more late season MLB bets.

Betting the MLB Playoffs - Home Field

Playing at home is often overvalued by public bettors. However, there is something to be said of playing at home in the MLB playoffs.

Fans come alive and it can be hard to win in a cold-weather city in October. With pitching a huge factor in the postseason, playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark can have its advantages too. There are some tough places to play in MLB. Keep that in mind when betting the MLB playoffs.

Itís football season! Check out our 2022 NFL season preview.

Playoff Betting Lines

Postseason lines in baseball tend to fluctuate a lot. MLB playoff bettors have to keep this in mind. There is a fine line between locking in a bet early and waiting for something to change. The better you are at beating the closing line; the more wins youíll get and the more money you will win.

It would be wise to follow teams very closely to make sure you know the starting pitchers for the next game. What you donít want is to lock in a bet only to find out that the starting pitcher is not who you thought it was going to be.

It really comes down to doing your homework and paying attention. Get as much inside information as you can get and hold on until just the right moment to place your wager. Find your spots and find value betting MLB run lines.

Do the Research

As mentioned, MLB bettors have to do the homework in order to be successful. In todayís MLB, there are tons of numbers available. Advanced analytics give bettors tremendous insight as they handicap games.

You can compare pitching stats, hitting stats, even pitcher versus hitter stats before making a final decision on a wager. If you donít take the time to do the work, your winning percentage and bankroll will suffer.

Betting the MLB Playoffs - The Run Line

Donít forget about quality run line bets. There are a few times when a blowout does occur in the MLB playoffs. Keep in mind though, you only need a team to win by two in order to cover the run line.

Roughly 30 percent of all MLB games are won by a single run. That means that most often teams do win by two or more. Keep that in mind when betting either the run line favorite or underdog. Look for the plus-money payout.

The Momentum Factor

Momentum can be a great thing for a baseball team. Consider the typical wild card team. Only seven wild card teams have won the World Series. Each likely benefited from momentum. The Miami Marlins of 1997 and 2003 got hot at just the right time. Keep a close eye on baseball scores and odds.

Winning a series can carry over into the next series and so on. Teams that have consistently good pitching, a strong hitting lineup, stay healthy, and get hot at the right time usually do very well come MLB playoff time.

Sometimes, momentum can carry over from the regular season. It also works in reverse. There have been teams that start seasons red hot. Then, near the end of the regular season, they lose their edge. Maybe itís a few injuries, but whatever the reason, bad momentum ends up with a team being eliminated early from the MLB playoffs.

Momentum can also be a key during game play. This is important when live betting baseball.

The Weather Factor

Because of the time of year, weather will play a huge role in betting the MLB playoffs. In areas where the weather gets colder and wetter at this time of year, it helps to check the forecast for game time.

One of the biggest weather influences on MLB games is wind. Specifically, wind speeds relate to MLB game totals. In games with the wind blowing in toward home plate at speeds of 5 mph or more, the Under has cashed over 55 percent of the time. When the wind blows in, long fly balls become outs instead of home runs and long hits.

Itís the same for winds blowing out to the outfield. The cutoff speed is 8 mph. Winds of this speed or greater have affected the Over, which has won at a 53 percent clip since 2005. MLB bettors should most definitely check the weather forecast before placing a bet in the MLB playoffs.





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