Finding Value in Betting the MLB
Playoffs
There is value in
betting the MLB playoffs.
Key Points
– One factor more
than any other influences MLB playoff outcomes.
– Do your homework
if you want to have success betting the MLB playoffs.
Betting
the MLB Playoffs
Betting the MLB
playoffs presents a ton of opportunity to the baseball bettor. It all starts
with an understanding of how the postseason works in MLB. There has been some
change in the format.
There are now three
wild cards in each league. That means six teams in both the National League and
American League will make the postseason.
The previous
one-and-done wild card format has been replaced with a best-of-three wild card
series. The top two seeds in the MLB Playoffs in each league receive a bye
while seeds 3 through 6 play in the wild card playoffs.
The division series
will remain as a best-of-five games. The higher seed, of course, has home field
advantage. The division series follows the 2-2-1 format where Games 1, 2, and 5
are at the higher seed’s home stadium.
The league
championship and World Series remain as best-of-sevens and follow the 2-3-2
home and away format.
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Pitching
Matters
One of the best
indicators of how successful a team will be in the MLB postseason is the
pitching staff. That includes both starters and relievers.
When it gets to
playoff time, teams will shorten their starting rotation. They will go from
five starters to four and, sometimes, they will even drop to just a three-man
rotation.
In the course of a
seven-game series, it’s possible that a team faces an opposing ace as many as
three times. That can mean the difference between a championship and a long
offseason.
Starters that can go
deeper into playoff games also help the bullpen. The fewer pitches a bullpen
has to throw; the better. Then, relievers can be ready to go for the next game.
Knowing advanced info about MLB pitching use can help you win more late season MLB bets.
Betting
the MLB Playoffs - Home Field
Playing at home is
often overvalued by public bettors. However, there is something to be said of
playing at home in the MLB playoffs.
Fans come alive and
it can be hard to win in a cold-weather city in October. With pitching a huge
factor in the postseason, playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark can have its
advantages too. There are some tough places to play in MLB. Keep that in mind
when betting the MLB playoffs.
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season! Check out our 2022 NFL season preview.
Playoff
Betting Lines
Postseason lines in
baseball tend to fluctuate a lot. MLB playoff bettors have to keep this in
mind. There is a fine line between locking in a bet early and waiting for
something to change. The better you are at beating the closing line; the more
wins you’ll get and the more money you will win.
It would be wise to
follow teams very closely to make sure you know the starting pitchers for the
next game. What you don’t want is to lock in a bet only to find out that the
starting pitcher is not who you thought it was going to be.
It really comes down
to doing your homework and paying attention. Get as much inside information as
you can get and hold on until just the right moment to place your wager. Find
your spots and find value betting MLB run lines.
Do the
Research
As mentioned, MLB
bettors have to do the homework in order to be successful. In today’s MLB,
there are tons of numbers available. Advanced analytics give bettors tremendous
insight as they handicap games.
You can compare
pitching stats, hitting stats, even pitcher versus hitter stats before making a
final decision on a wager. If you don’t take the time to do the work, your
winning percentage and bankroll will suffer.
Betting
the MLB Playoffs - The Run Line
Don’t forget about
quality run line bets. There are a few times when a blowout does occur in the
MLB playoffs. Keep in mind though, you only need a team to win by two in order
to cover the run line.
Roughly 30 percent
of all MLB games are won by a single run. That means that most often teams do
win by two or more. Keep that in mind when betting either the run line favorite
or underdog. Look for the plus-money payout.
The
Momentum Factor
Momentum can be a
great thing for a baseball team. Consider the typical wild card team. Only
seven wild card teams have won the World Series. Each likely benefited from
momentum. The Miami Marlins of 1997 and 2003 got hot at just the right time.
Keep a close eye on baseball scores and odds.
Winning a series can
carry over into the next series and so on. Teams that have consistently good
pitching, a strong hitting lineup, stay healthy, and get hot at the right time
usually do very well come MLB playoff time.
Sometimes, momentum
can carry over from the regular season. It also works in reverse. There have
been teams that start seasons red hot. Then, near the end of the regular
season, they lose their edge. Maybe it’s a few injuries, but whatever the
reason, bad momentum ends up with a team being eliminated early from the MLB
playoffs.
Momentum can also be
a key during game play. This is important when live betting baseball.
The
Weather Factor
Because of the time
of year, weather will play a huge role in betting the MLB playoffs. In areas
where the weather gets colder and wetter at this time of year, it helps to check
the forecast for game time.
One of the biggest
weather influences on MLB games is wind. Specifically, wind speeds relate to
MLB game totals. In games with the wind blowing in toward home plate at speeds
of 5 mph or more, the Under has cashed over 55 percent of the time. When the
wind blows in, long fly balls become outs instead of home runs and long hits.
It’s the same for
winds blowing out to the outfield. The cutoff speed is 8 mph. Winds of this
speed or greater have affected the Over, which has won at a 53 percent clip
since 2005. MLB bettors should most definitely check the weather forecast
before placing a bet in the MLB playoffs.
