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NFL Week 17 By the Numbers

 

The final week of the 2020 NFL regular season spelled out which teams will enter the postseason and which ones will go home. The aftermath also left a few teams searching for new head coaches.

Week 17 is typically a weird one from a betting perspective. It’s almost as if anything goes. Take the Bills-Dolphins matchup as an example.

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Weird Numbers

Top sports handicappers and bettors alike all knew that Buffalo, the AFC East champion, was a 3.5- to 4.5-point favorite heading into its season finale with Miami. The Dolphins had to have a win in order to make the postseason.

By the time Sunday rolled around, the Bills were 3.5- to 4.5-point underdog. The thinking was that Bills QB Josh Allen and some other starters would probably be replaced early in the second half. Miami had some incentive to win, therefore, the Dolphins were favored.

Allen was replaced early in the second half, but the Bills had built a 22-point lead by that time. Buffalo ended up winning by 30, 56-26. The Bills also doused the 10-6 Dolphins’ playoff hopes.

$1,000,000

With the end of the regular season, a number of players were able to collect on performance bonuses placed into their contracts. For example, Rams OLB Leonard Floyd needed a half-sack on Sunday to eclipse the 10-sack mark. When he took down Arizona QB Chris Streveler, he wound up with 10.5 and earned a cool $1.25 million bonus.

Green Bay OLB Za’Darius Smith earned an even $1 million, $500K for hitting double digits in sacks - 12.5 - and another $500K for reaching at least 12.

There were a few other players not so happy with themselves after Week 17. That’s because they missed out on a $1 million bonus. Dallas QB Andy Dalton would have earned $1 million if the Cowboys had made the playoffs.

Minnesota OT Riley Reiff was set to earn $1 million if he played in 93.75 percent of all the Vikings offensive snaps. He finished at 92.6 percent.

See our NFL Week 16 by the numbers from last week’s action.

Favorites & Dogs

Week 17 saw 14 favorites win straight up. For the season, favorites enjoyed a record of 170-79-1. Covering the spread was another story.

Underdogs covered in nine of the sixteen games in Week 17 leaving the season record at 136-112-2 in favor of the dogs.

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Three-fourths

When Week 17 was over, seven teams in each conference earned playoff berths. That’s up from six last year. This is the first year of the NFL’s new playoff format. 

In year’s past, there were four games on Wild Card weekend. This year, there are six. It is worth noting that in each of the past two seasons, three of the four lower-seeded teams won on Wild Card weekend.

Last year, it was Tennessee, Seattle, and Minnesota. The year before, it was the Chargers, Colts, and Eagles. Five of those teams were underdogs. Only last year’s Seahawks were favored in their Wild Card weekend game.

If this trend holds, at least four of the six lower seeds would win this weekend. The work for bettors is to find which ones can pull the upset.

We missed our Seahawks @ 49ers free pick on Sunday, go see what we picked.





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